Keynote Speech: UAE-Sub-Saharan Africa Dialogue, AGDA

Thank you very much, and good morning to you all, Excellencies and esteemed guests.

It's truly a privilege to be here this morning. I am very thankful to His Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan for the productive conversations I have had with him over the last few years, particularly during the time when Kenya's non-permanent membership of the Security Council intersected with the UAE's.

Thank you also to His Excellency Nickolay Mladenov, Director General of AGDA, for this invitation—not just for today, but for the opportunity to join you on your path of growth. Thank you very much to you and all the AGDA colleagues I have met so far.

Sultan Al-Nuaimi, I look forward to getting to know you and understanding the work of the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research.

I have seen some old friends here since we left the hotel, so I know that I'm speaking to an audience deeply versed in the opportunities and challenges that the countries and peoples of Africa face.

That means I'm not going to lecture or teach, but rather set the stage, as the two previous speakers have done, and provoke thought for our conversations over the next two days.

Of course, we're here in the UAE, a nation that has rapidly transformed itself into a hub of global commerce, culture, and people-to-people exchange.

As we consider the UAE's expanding partnership with African countries, I hope we approach these vast opportunities with a clarity rooted in history and aligned with ambitions that can make this relationship profoundly enriching to Africans and the people of the United Arab Emirates.

Now, as you all know, Africa's story is not just a catalog of tragedies, nor is Africa a monolith of poverty and want; it is a continent of 54 countries, each resilient, aspirational, and complex.

Africa's story spans the arc of human civilization. It is the birthplace of humanity, home to empires, centers of trade, and profound intellectual and cultural traditions.

From the ancient trade routes of Mali to the diplomatic journeys of Congo's kings to the Holy See in the early 17th century, African societies have long been in dialogue with the world, and they carry these memories into today.

I'm reminded of Born in Blackness by Howard French, a former New York Times reporter who now teaches at Columbia University. I would recommend that book to you, as it discusses Africa's role in global modernity.

It's essential to bring up history because seeking the future together without understanding where we come from risks missing great opportunities and making serious mistakes.

Africa's history of resilience and adaptation isn't an obstruction. For Africa, the past is present. Today, young African states strive to build independent futures on the remnants of colonial structures.

The UAE's success has inspired many Africans who, despite carrying histories of extraction and exploitation, seek to create their own global centers powered by a vision as bold as that which powered Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and the other Emirates.

To partner with Africa is to engage with states that are still forming, to support nations seeking to convert colonial legacies into systems of peace and prosperity for their citizens.

The UAE understands state-building. It knows the patience and ambition required. And as we deepen this dialogue, we must do so with an understanding that while some African countries have achieved stability and growth that put them on a trajectory to one day approach where the UAE is today, others face crushing barriers that could drive them into state failure in the next few years.

Curiously, I was looking through the reactions to the latest Nobel Prize in Economics. I'm sure many researchers here have caught up with it—it was awarded just a few days ago.

This Nobel Prize was given for research specifically on how European colonization led to different kinds of institutions and the role of those institutions in delivering prosperity.

As I reviewed reactions to the prize, I couldn't help but notice it was reviewed as extremely Western-centric. It's research that does not fully recognize the adaptive institutions Asia created to root its own massive economic success, such as in China and in India today.

And so much of Africa's question is how to build states that can deliver prosperity, peace, and security to their people. Part of the dialogue over the coming days must touch on societal institutions and how the UAE and African countries can engage in a discussion that allows Africa to better understand how precisely the UAE pursued its vision so successfully. How was it done in China? How is it being done in India? In other parts of Asia?

I think some of the work ongoing here at Agda speaks to this triangular conversation that has the capability and potential to offer Africa new pathways of thinking and acting in state-building. I emphasize this because the preeminent challenge in Africa today is how to build and maintain an effective state.

In the coming decades, Africa will be the world's heartbeat. By 2050, one in four people on Earth will be African, forming the world's largest workforce.

While the rest of the world grapples with aging populations, Africa's youth bulge presents a singular opportunity.

Just imagine: 2.5 billion people, a median age of 19 by 2050. This is the future—a future where labor, markets, and culture will emerge from Africa to impact every corner of the globe.

This is not just an opportunity for Africa; if nurtured, Africa's youth could drive global growth. If neglected, they could bring an era of upheaval.

This demographic reality must be matched by economic strategies and social support, as well as by job creation and education that rise to the challenge. Migration patterns will shift, production centers may relocate, and economic power could rebalance. Africa has the potential to be central to global consumption and production, but only if its partners and elites invest in its future.

Africa is urbanizing faster than any other region on Earth. Cities are growing, demand for goods and services is rising, and infrastructure is stretched thin. Here lies a crucial opportunity, one that the UAE has rightly identified. But infrastructure alone will not answer Africa's needs.

The continent is caught in an energy crisis; while producing just 3% of the world's carbon emissions, it endures the droughts, floods, and food insecurity wrought by climate change, with over 600 million people still without reliable electricity. Now, when African nations need capital to fuel their energy future, the West has turned off the tap for fossil fuel investments.

Africa needs energy growth to meet its rapidly industrializing needs, and it needs it urgently. I think the UAE can be a crucial partner, embracing both renewables and traditional resources. Meeting Africa's energy needs respects its development trajectory. In doing so, we create a future where Africa's energy sector fuels inclusive growth rather than perpetual crisis.

Colleagues, as you know, Africa's challenges are as varied as its countries, and its opportunities are as vast as its people. From urbanizing nations to resource-rich states, each African country operates on its own terms.

For those seeking to engage, there is no single Africa strategy. For investments to last, they must be grounded in the local realities and aspirations of each nation.

Transaction-oriented approaches may appeal in the short term, but they fall short of the vision that built the UAE. Instead, we need partnerships that acknowledge Africa's diversity and potential. We need strategic approaches to understanding risk—not to shy away from it, but to navigate it wisely.

Let's develop assessments that capture the distinct political, social, and economic nuances of each African state because building capable, inclusive states that hold political legitimacy is Africa's greatest challenge and demands engagement that goes beyond the surface.

I believe that's part of what we're here to discuss over the next two days, as a basis for working together to build that nuanced understanding of political risk. This is not political risk from Lloyds of London. This is not political risk as assessed in New York City, where I live today, but rather a deeper, more nuanced, context-driven understanding that considers each African country's unique characteristics.

That is what should guide this substantial surge of investment coming from the UAE and elsewhere.

The UAE has a unique role to play—not just as a foreign investor, but as a co-creator of Africa's future.

Supporting Africa's industrial growth is crucial to ensuring that African countries can meet their people's needs while contributing to global supply chains.

As the UAE pursues its post-oil vision, Africa offers an unmatched opportunity for mutual growth. Investing in African infrastructure—ports, airports, roads, energy—is essential.

But Africa's success requires more than the hardware of infrastructure investment.

That physical infrastructure must be accompanied by what I call the software of governance, peace cultures, trust, and social contracts that foster resilience and hope. This isn't an abstract need; it is foundational to a strong, stable Africa.

The stakes are even higher in the Horn of Africa, where I come from. Here lies the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden—a crossroads of global trade, yet a region plagued by volatility.

The UAE's engagement in the Horn must be grounded in long-term cooperation, aligned with the African Union's vision for peace and security.

An African-led framework can secure stability and, in turn, create the investment environment that will drive both African and UAE interests forward.

Debt. As many of you observing Africa's fiscal challenges know, debt burdens across Africa are real.

They bring severe fiscal constraints and structural inefficiencies. While African countries turn to multilateral banks and private lenders, many face a financial straitjacket, dependent on loans in the absence of domestic savings, effective taxation systems, or governance that staunches financial leaks.

Here, the UAE has an opportunity to model a different kind of partnership by offering sustainable, responsible investment.

The UAE can stand apart from the debt dependencies that have stifled Africa's economic future. African nations need investment that fuels growth, not loans that compromise it. The UAE can be a standard-bearer for a balanced, prosperous Africa grounded in fiscal stability.

Returning to the Horn, it exemplifies both Africa's promise and its challenges. To 140 million people, vast resources, young demographics, yet a history where civil conflict has been a tragic tool for power negotiation.

For over 50 years, the region has witnessed interstate wars and civil strife, from Ethiopia's unfortunate civil wars to Somalia's prolonged conflicts and recently Sudan's devastating civil war.

These illustrate how fragile state-building can lead to crisis and serve as a cautionary tale demanding our attention and understanding.

Ultimately, the region's stability, even as it engages with different partners and groupings, will depend on the African peace and security architecture—a framework with vision but not yet the resources it needs.

A strong Africa, leading its own peace and security initiatives, holds the key to becoming a true partner for peace and prosperity.

For the UAE, supporting the African peace and security architecture is not only an investment in stability; it is an investment in a future where Africa's security enables its growth.

I must comment briefly on this.

I am often frustrated by the African peace and security architecture. There are people here who have been part of building it and are even more frustrated than I am. But we should never let the shortcomings of that architecture obscure its profound promise.

The African peace and security architecture is an assertion of independence and ambition by an entire continent. No other region has anything close to this kind of peace and security framework. So even though it may fall short and may not react as quickly or powerfully as needed, the foundation is there. When it has reacted, it has proven remarkably successful. When it hasn't, devastating crises have been prolonged.

This does not mean other groups aren't crucial in resolving Africa's conflicts, but this architecture should never be sidelined because it holds the key to sustained peace-building and conflict resolution.

Let me end by saying that in Africa, reputation is earned. Many countries partnering with Africa today carry the burden of reputations damaged by past practices, especially those that were colonial powers and have not transformed their relationship with Africa from that colonial dynamic.

Those countries continue to struggle with their reputations in Africa.

Africa's younger generation is politically astute, deeply networked, and vocal. It is demanding far more from African leaders than ever before. These young people are looking for allies—not to be disruptive or destructive, but to shape a future that includes them and harnesses their promise and ingenuity.

This new generation evaluates its own governments and partners by the sincerity of their engagement, the respect they show for African sovereignty, and the substance of their commitments. The UAE has a precious opportunity to build trust and become a genuine partner in Africa's journey toward prosperity and stability.

Reflecting on my own country, Kenya, I see two possible reactions to Africa's youth over the next decade. Some will attempt to ignore or divert this call, leading to profound state fragility, even if on the surface they seem stable. Others will seek to harness the youth's vision, not extremism, but positive aspirations for the future.

These countries may appear noisy and politically fragile in the interim but will, over time, emerge with a strength and momentum that gives them a real opportunity to become transformed societies.

Today, the UAE and Africa stand on the brink of something far greater than economics or commerce. We are building a partnership rooted in mutual respect, shared vision, and strategic foresight.

Africa's youthful population, markets, and immense potential align with the UAE's goal of economic diversification and global influence.

Realizing this potential requires us to embrace the spirit of partnership and for the UAE to join Africa in building an Africa that leads itself, asserts its global interests, and achieves stability and growth.

The choices and conversations we have here today are perhaps among the most significant I have participated in for many years because we have the opportunity to build something new.

The UAE has a chance to avoid the mistakes other countries have made when engaging with Africa.

With its vision, the UAE can bring that same ambition to its partnership with African countries.

If the people in this room embrace what I've said, it will secure not just a position of respect and honor for the UAE on the continent but also a legacy that will endure as long as Africa continues to develop in its complex, dynamic way.

Thank you.